TRIZ based forecasting

Since the development of the technical systems proceeds acoording to objective technical laws
it is very practical to use the revealed regularities for forecasting of the development.
Prognosis provides both characteristics of the upcomming technical system,
the direction of its further development, as well as specific design solutions.
Basic stages technical system's forecasting are:

1. The interim forecast (expres-prognosis)
2. The preparation for the thorough prognosis
3. The main prognosis according to laws of development of technical systems
4. Conclusion prognosis (The summary of forecast)

Expres-prognosis is useful as a preparatory stage, which will allow to avoid the stereotype and stencil ideas, which occur during
a deep, familiar understanding of the objects of forecast (literature, internet).
Psychological inertia of specialists is also perceived as a brake at work on prognosis.
There are many techniques designed to overcome the psychological inertia: removal of technical terminology, utilization of DMM,
procedures of generation of fantastic ideas, the numerical axis operator etc., that are advised in the warm-up phase before commencement of works.

During the forecasting is advisable to keep in mind that laws are creating the uniform system with complex relationships and plenty of hierarchical levels.
It is recommended to use universal laws of dialectics, as well as very specific patterns of development of the studied class of technical systems.
Super-effect of new ideas and suggestions is also often present. Super-effect arises in the form of new features and should be maximally exploited for the further development of the system.

The TRIZ prognosis has to find an answer to the question: specifically HOW will be achieved new characteristics.
The answer to the question - "How can be taken the advantage of inevitable changes to the system?" can not always be determined.
This means that due to the forecast may arise RESEARCH TASKs such as:
what brings the forecasting change, what for it can be used, which positive and negative characteristics will arrise during the development of the system.

The TRIZ forecasting often has an iterative character. The investigated line of development can refine and improve in recurrent steps.
The forecast will be terminated by revealing of the contradiction between forecasted predictions and constructing of the minimal contradictory image of prognosis.
Sometimes, it is possible to find a series of alternative projected images.

Forecasting is the most complex type of work for the improvement of technical systems, therefore, the whole TRIZ apparatus mastering is needed for its successful implementation.
It is recommended to follow the following rules:

• At each step it is necessary to reveal and unconditionally identify uncertainties, problems, tasks (usually in a form of contradictions), including seemingly intractable and outdated ones.
• Each newly found task is firstly being sharpened and then being tried to solve. When it is not immediately possible to find a solution it is necessary to postpone this search to a final stage. Newly found solution is recorded, then the possibility of obtaining supereffect of such a solution is assessed. The last but not least the way of its usage and a new tasks, that may arise are examinned.
• Is not recommended to terminate the services even in case of finding the ideas that fit the contracting authority. The most interesting results can be obtained during the final phase of forecasts.

STAGE 1: Preliminary forecasts (expres-forecast)

1. To get familiar with the starting solution of a base technical system (BTS) - the technical literature, documentation
   goal: to understand the operating principles, design, and also the history of development of BTS (including emerging tasks).
2. It is necessary to construct a number of models describing the base technical system: using mechanical analogy, DMM methods, VEPOL transformations.
   Uncovering and formulating technical and physical contradictions typical for current state of BTS.
3. To use the tools of TRIZ for solving of formulated tasks, to transform the obtained models.
4. To conduct a simple morphological transformations of default BTS.
5. To assess the evolution of the default TS taking into account the direction of the base line of laws of development of BTS.
6. To summarize the results of the preliminary prognosis: formulating basic possible directions for future development of BTS, perspective technical solutions and the tasks to be considered.

STAGE 2: Preparation for in-depth prognosis

1. To formulate the final goal of the work and fix the work plans of prognosis. Select the experts to create a temporary working group.
2. To realise the prognosis using traditional methods.
3. To carry out an analysis of the default TS using value/cost analysis methodology: construct structural, functional, technological and diagnostic tables.
4. To examine supersystems default TS, to determine trends of development, and the degree of the effect (stimulating, braking) to the default TS. Uncover useful and harmful supereffects, arising from work in the default TS resolving assembly of different supersystems.
5. To analyze the development of other systems that are similar to the BTS. Assess the evolution of alternative systems and antisystems.

STAGE 3: Forecast according to laws of development of technical systems

1. To determine to what development stage in each line of development the BTS belongs as a whole (and its subsystems). To find the underlying problems and perform tasks in the current development stage.
2. To assess the possibility to take the next step (or series of steps) in each development stage. To find the tasks and problems arising in attempts to make this step (or series of steps).
3. To uncover the potential developmental mistakes (by summary of the mistakes). With the use of "diversionary approach" and TRIZ apparatus to identify potential negative moments.

STAGE 4: Conclusion Prognosis (prognosis summary)

1. To analyze all tasks unveiled during the work, to construct a hierarchy of tasks, to provide the search of "missing" tasks. Undertake a "simplification" and allocate a "key" tasks.
2. To solve the key tasks with a use of the TRIZ tools, which were earmarked during the previous stage. Detect potential supereffects.
3. To summarize into the forecasting blocks all ideas and solutions that were obtained during the various stages of the forecasting.
   To reveal the contradictions between the blocks and to try to solve them using the TRIZ tools.
4. To sum up all tasks that were not solvable with the use of current level of technology development. To assess how these blocks will change when the technical restrictions will be removed.
5. To create scenarios to future development of BTS: to summarize forecasted blocks into one not-contradictory image (or a serie of internally not-contradictory images)
6. To build a perspective plan for the development of BTS obtained from the obtained scenario.

The Solution to Research Tasks
It is possible that during the solution of inventive tasks, the investigative problem may arise where it is important to find out or explain the causes of the observed phenomenon.

It is possible to use an procedure of "inverse research task(IRT)" to solve the problem of finding the cause of flutter, defect and mistake in production.
The principle of IRT lies in the fact that instead of the basic question "How to explain the emergence of this (unwanted) phenomenon?" it becomes necessary to answer the question "how to achieve the formation of such phenomenon?".
This procedure (diverse approaches) can transform research tasks on the inventive and then apply the known TRIZ aparatus to resolve it.

The methodology of process of research tasks consists of six operations:

1. The Formulation of Research Task - what needs to be explained.
2. The formulation of the inverse problem - "Why (how) it happens?" transform into the "how to create it?"
3. Passportisation of sources - quantify resources that exist in TS and may cause (participate) in the accomplishing of the required action.
4. Seeking the known solutions - finding out in what areas of science and technology, the explored phenomenon usually appears.
5. Looking for the necessary effects - check whether it is possible with the help of existing resources to achieve the effect required for the solution of inverse task (IRT).
6. Searching for new solutions - standards, TRIZ, ARIZ. No additional materials and fields are allowed to enter the system.
   • Formulation of hypotheses and the tasks for their control
   • When the observed phenomenon is damaging - how can it be removed?
   • When the observed phenomenon is useful - how can it be intensified?

The essence of divesive approach lies in the fact that the during the analysis raises the question: how the object can be destroyed? How to achieve defects and flutter, such that quality control methods will fail to find it? After solving the "diversion" there remains to find the ways to prevent the emergence of specific, undesirable phenomena.

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